Odds Guide
2021年7月23日Register here: http://gg.gg/vhq6p
Written by Clay SmithIdiot’s Guide
These types of odds are written as 10/1, 5/2, etc. And with them you can easily calculate how much you stand to win: if you bet the second number, you win the first number. So, in the first. As the name suggests, American odds are most popular in the United States. Working differently for favorites and underdogs, they’re also known as ’moneyline’ odds. American odds for betting on the favorite work by showing how much money you would have to bet in order to win $100. Things are different when betting on an underdog.
That’s right - I will be your guide. The good thing about having an idiot for a guide is that I have to make it simple to understand it myself, which means, hopefully, you will understand it as well.Probability or Odds
Probability
Probability means the risk of an event happening divided by the total number of people at risk of having that event. I will use the example in a recent JAMA article. In a deck of 52 cards, there are 13 spades. So, the risk (or probability) of drawing a card randomly from the deck and getting spades is 13/52 = 0.25 = 25%. The numerator is the number of spades, and the denominator is the total number of cards.
Odds
Odds seems less intuitive. It is the ratio of the probability a thing will happen over the probability it won’t. In the spades example, the probability of drawing a spade is 0.25. The probability of not drawing a spade is 1 - 0.25. So the odds is 0.25/0.75 or 1:3 (or 0.33 or 1/3 pronounced 1 to 3 odds).
Moving back and forth
To go from odds to probability, simply take the numerator/(denominator + numerator). In the spades example, the odds of 1/3 is converted by taking 1/1+3 = 0.25 - and now we are back to probability. To go from probability to odds, simply take the numerator/(denominator-numerator). In the spades example, given that the probability of drawing a spade is 1/4, take 1/(4-1) = 1:3 odds or odds = 0.33.
Statistical Significance
If an odds ratio (OR) is 1, it means there is no association between the exposure and outcome. So, if the 95% confidence interval for an OR includes 1, it means the results are not statistically significant. Example, exposure to colored vs white Christmas lights was associated with an increase in jocularity score, OR = 1.2 (95%CI 0.98-1.45). Sorry, this is not statistically significant. Let’s just go with white lights…
Use
Either the OR or risk ratio (RR) could be used in many study types. However, only the OR can be used in case-control studies. Because in order to calculate the RR, one must know the risk. Risk is a probability, a proportion of those exposed with an outcome compared to the total population exposed. This is impossible in a case-control study, in which those who already have the outcome are included without knowing the total population exposed.Risk Ratio
RR is a very intuitive concept. It is the probability (or risk) of one outcome over the probability (risk) of another. Let’s use a study we covered on JF to discuss this concept. Survival was lower in pediatric patients intubated during arrest compared with those not intubated: 411/1135 (36%) vs 460/1135 (41%). So, the RR is 36.2%/40.5% = 0.89. This means survival was reduced by a factor of 0.89 for pediatric arrest patients who were intubated during arrest vs. those who were not. As an example, if survival was expected to be 40%, then intubating during arrest would reduce it to: 40% x 0.89 = 35.6%.
Let’s do one more example. Supination-flexion (SF) vs hyperpronation (HP) to reduce nursemaid’s elbow was more likely to fail. The risk of failure with SF was 96/351 (27%) vs. 32/350 (9%) with HP. The RR was 3. This has a very intuitive meaning: risk of failure with SF was three times more likely than HP.Odds Ratio
The OR is a way to present the strength of association between risk factors/exposures and outcomes. If the OR is <1, odds are decreased for an outcome; OR >1 means the odds are increased for a given outcome. Let’s look at the examples again and consider odds.
For pediatric arrest, the risk of survival if intubated during arrest was 411/1135 (36%) vs 460/1135 (41%) if not intubated. Let’s convert to odds and calculate an OR.
*
Intubated: 411/1135-411 = 411/724 = 0.57 odds.
*
Non-intubated: 460/1135-460 = 460/675 = 0.68 odds.
*
So, the OR is 0.57/0.68 = 0.83.Expenditure Guidelines Odds Oregon
Note, this is very close to the RR (0.89) but is a slight overestimate of the effect on the outcome. This is always the case with the OR compared to the RR - it overestimates the effect.
Take the example of supination-flexion vs hyperpronation for nursemaid’s. The risk of failure for SF was 96/351 vs. 32/350 with HP. Let’s convert this to odds.
*
SF: 96/351-96 = 0.376 odds
*
HP: 32/350-32 = 0.10 odds
*
The OR is 0.376/0.10 = 3.7
Note, the OR overestimates the RR, which was 3. Although one could say the risk of failure using SF is 3 times greater than HP, one could not say, based on the OR, the risk was 3.74 times greater. The OR and RR are not the same. What could be said is that the odds of failure is 3.74 times greater.Risk Ratio vs Odds Ratio
Whereas RR can be interpreted in a straightforward way, OR can not. A RR of 3 means the risk of an outcome is increased threefold. A RR of 0.5 means the risk is cut in half. But an OR of 3 doesn’t mean the risk is threefold; rather the odds is threefold greater. Interpretation of an OR must be in terms of odds, not probability. Again, the OR will always be an overestimate compared to the RR. However, the RR and OR will be similar for rare outcomes, <10%. But the OR increasingly overestimates RR as outcomes exceed 10%. This is easier to understand with an example.
Pretend a new vape, Vapalicious, is associated with cancer.
*
80/100 people who use it get cancer.
*
20/100 who don’t use it get cancer.
*
The risk of getting cancer is 4 times greater in Vapalicious users. RR = 0.8/0.2 = 4
*
Note how distorted the OR becomes in this example. OR = (80/20)/(20/80) = 16
What if Vapalicious rarely caused cancer?
*
5/1000 get cancer with Vapalicious vs 2.5/1000 for non-users.
*
RR = 2.
*
OR = 2 as well (actually 2.005)
*
With rare outcomes, the RR and OR are very similar.Why Does This Matter?
This matters because we often equate the OR and RR. Unwary researchers, reviewers, or news media might report a 16-fold increased risk of cancer from Vapalicious. In fact, there was a 4-fold increased risk of cancer from Vapalicous. Not that I plan to use Vapalicious (or any other vape), but a 16-fold vs 4-fold increase is a gross overestimation of the effect.What Does the OR Mean?
So, what does an OR mean? Here it is in plain language.
*
An OR of 1.2 means there is a 20% increase in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure.
*
An OR of 2 means there is a 100% increase in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure. Or this could be stated that there is a doubling of the odds of the outcome. Note, this is not the same as saying a doubling of the risk.
*
An OR of 0.2 means there is an 80% decrease in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure.Summary
*
Odds Ratio is a measure of the strength of association with an exposure and an outcome.
*
OR > 1 means greater odds of association with the exposure and outcome.
*
OR = 1 means there is no association between exposure and outcome.
*
OR < 1 means there is a lower odds of association between the exposure and outcome.
*
If the 95% confidence interval for the OR includes 1, the results are not statistically significant.
*
OR and RR are not the same.
*
OR always overestimate RR, but…
*
OR approximates RR when the outcome is rare but markedly overestimates it as outcome exceeds 10%.References
*
The odds ratio by Bland and Altman, of Bland-Altman plot fame
*
Wikipedia aka source of all statistical knowledge
Obviously, sports betting is gambling. However, there is a solid strategy that you can earn some money like an investment that is offered a bank. It uses ’odds-on’ favorite on online bookmakers. If you are interested in this betting strategy and getting money from gambling, read tips below.What is an “Odds-on” favorite?
An “odds-on” favorite is a selection where the money that you gamble returns less than the amount you gambled. For example it is when you bet $100 but you win less than $100. An “evens” bet will win you the same amount of money as you gambled but an “odds-on” bet will give you less. For example: 1/3 = Three to one ON – This means to win $10 you must gamble $30. So you will win back less than your original stake.Where do we see “odds-on” betting?
Everywhere, especially in team sports and tennis.
For example you may see a fixture like this in the English FA Cup: Manchester United vs Cheltenham F.C.
For almost everyone – the fans, the bookmakers and the punters - it is very obvious that Manchester SHOULD win this football match. A few possible reasons are:
a) Manchester United are in the Premier League and Cheltenham FC are in Championship League 3
b) Manchester United are playing at home
c) Cheltenham FC have never beaten Manchester United in a competitive gameAgainst Overwhelming Odds Guide
So the bookmakers would probably offer odds that look something like this: Blackjack Odds Guide
Manchester United to win 1/20
Draw 8/1
Cheltenham to win 16/1
This means that if you bet on Manchester United then you would have to bet a lot of money to return a small amount. If you bet $100 and Manchester United win then you will return $105 – a profit of $5 (plus your original bet)Why would anyone bet on “Odds-on” favorites?
Betting on “odds-on” favorites can sometimes feel like a waste of money because it often seems that the returns are very small or to get a good profitable return then you often need to gamble a lot of money. Also, the risks can often seem too high for such small returns, losing after gambling on a favorite can be very disappointing and annoying. True blue casino mobile login.
However, a return of $5 on a $100 bet is still a profit of 5% and this is something that punters like to use when comparing how much return a typical bank would give if the same investment was made. For people who gamble on long odds-on favorites they believe their money is “safe” and it pays back more than a bank and so for these types of gamblers it is worth doing as it is profitable. What is the strategy?
Best ios casino app emulator. With the following system of strategic betting – it may be possible for you to get profitable returns and at the same time keep your risks lower. It comes from the old idea that “over time, a dripping tap will fill a bucket”.
This betting strategy is a long term investment plan and needs patience and the knowledge and ability to be able to bet on a lot of different sports. However, some sports should be avoided at all times when it comes to putting large amounts on “odds-on” favorites.What are the “guidelines” for using the strategy?
If you choose to follow any betting strategies you find here or elsewhere on-line, or fellow punters recommend to you or you discover on your own, you will often find or make “guidelines” that are recommended. Here are some for this strategy:
1. Start with a fixed amount – if possible – a minimum of $1000.
2. Only bet on “odds on” favorites.
3. Place at least one bet a week. (The more you do a week the quicker your total will increase)
4. Only gamble 10% or less of your “total” amount.
5. Do not place bets on horse racing, F1 or golf events.
The way the system works is as follows: It is recommend that you bet 10% or less of your total fixed amount and that you choose odds on bets that you feel will almost definitely win. You can also look at different bookmakers odds as sometimes odds-on prices can be quite different. The most profitable odds-on bets come from rugby, cricket, soccer, tennis, American Football, basketball, baseball and ice hockey. Golf and F1 should be avoided as there are too many variables – for example the weather that can strongly affect the result and make things too risky to bet odds on – use F1 and golf to find “value” bets instead. Odds on betting is also not recommended on horse racing for too many reasons to be given here. What happens when you follow the strategy?
The following table shows what happens if you gamble on odds on soccer, cricket, American football, ice hockey and rugby matches.No.Betting FixtureOddsBetReturnTotal1Soccer
Celtic to Win (Saturday)1/5$100Win $20$11202Soccer
Chelsea to win (Sunday - afternoon)1/3$112$37.33$1157.333Soccer
Barcelona to win (Sunday - night)1/4$115.73Win $28.93$1186.264American Football
New England Patriots to win (Monday)4/7$59.31 (5%) Risk is highWin $33.89$1220.155Ice Hockey
Chicago to win (Tuesday)4/7$61.00 (5%)Lose $61.00$11596Soccer
Spain to win (Friday)1/8$115.90Win $14.49$1130.397Cricket
Pakistan to win (Saturday)1/3$114.00Win $38.00$1152.008Rugby
New Zealand to win (Sunday)1/10$115.20Win $11.52$1163.529Soccer
Bayern Munich to win (Tuesday)1/4$116.35Win $29.09$1192.6110Soccer
Celtic to win (Wednesday)1/10$119.26Win $11.93$1204.54ResultOdds Guidelines
Download betting. So you can see that after gambling on “odds-on” favorites only and by not betting more than 10% of the total value the profit is at over $200 within just ten bets. That also includes a losing bet – note that also 5% was bet where the odds offered were higher than 1/3. The risk is slightly higher and the result is not so certain for higher odds on bets so it is sometimes a good idea to reduce the stake (the amount you bet) for some fixtures. The thing to remember is that “A winner is a WINNER – no matter how small the return!” and overtime you can fill that bucket with the drips! Good luck!
Register here: http://gg.gg/vhq6p
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
Written by Clay SmithIdiot’s Guide
These types of odds are written as 10/1, 5/2, etc. And with them you can easily calculate how much you stand to win: if you bet the second number, you win the first number. So, in the first. As the name suggests, American odds are most popular in the United States. Working differently for favorites and underdogs, they’re also known as ’moneyline’ odds. American odds for betting on the favorite work by showing how much money you would have to bet in order to win $100. Things are different when betting on an underdog.
That’s right - I will be your guide. The good thing about having an idiot for a guide is that I have to make it simple to understand it myself, which means, hopefully, you will understand it as well.Probability or Odds
Probability
Probability means the risk of an event happening divided by the total number of people at risk of having that event. I will use the example in a recent JAMA article. In a deck of 52 cards, there are 13 spades. So, the risk (or probability) of drawing a card randomly from the deck and getting spades is 13/52 = 0.25 = 25%. The numerator is the number of spades, and the denominator is the total number of cards.
Odds
Odds seems less intuitive. It is the ratio of the probability a thing will happen over the probability it won’t. In the spades example, the probability of drawing a spade is 0.25. The probability of not drawing a spade is 1 - 0.25. So the odds is 0.25/0.75 or 1:3 (or 0.33 or 1/3 pronounced 1 to 3 odds).
Moving back and forth
To go from odds to probability, simply take the numerator/(denominator + numerator). In the spades example, the odds of 1/3 is converted by taking 1/1+3 = 0.25 - and now we are back to probability. To go from probability to odds, simply take the numerator/(denominator-numerator). In the spades example, given that the probability of drawing a spade is 1/4, take 1/(4-1) = 1:3 odds or odds = 0.33.
Statistical Significance
If an odds ratio (OR) is 1, it means there is no association between the exposure and outcome. So, if the 95% confidence interval for an OR includes 1, it means the results are not statistically significant. Example, exposure to colored vs white Christmas lights was associated with an increase in jocularity score, OR = 1.2 (95%CI 0.98-1.45). Sorry, this is not statistically significant. Let’s just go with white lights…
Use
Either the OR or risk ratio (RR) could be used in many study types. However, only the OR can be used in case-control studies. Because in order to calculate the RR, one must know the risk. Risk is a probability, a proportion of those exposed with an outcome compared to the total population exposed. This is impossible in a case-control study, in which those who already have the outcome are included without knowing the total population exposed.Risk Ratio
RR is a very intuitive concept. It is the probability (or risk) of one outcome over the probability (risk) of another. Let’s use a study we covered on JF to discuss this concept. Survival was lower in pediatric patients intubated during arrest compared with those not intubated: 411/1135 (36%) vs 460/1135 (41%). So, the RR is 36.2%/40.5% = 0.89. This means survival was reduced by a factor of 0.89 for pediatric arrest patients who were intubated during arrest vs. those who were not. As an example, if survival was expected to be 40%, then intubating during arrest would reduce it to: 40% x 0.89 = 35.6%.
Let’s do one more example. Supination-flexion (SF) vs hyperpronation (HP) to reduce nursemaid’s elbow was more likely to fail. The risk of failure with SF was 96/351 (27%) vs. 32/350 (9%) with HP. The RR was 3. This has a very intuitive meaning: risk of failure with SF was three times more likely than HP.Odds Ratio
The OR is a way to present the strength of association between risk factors/exposures and outcomes. If the OR is <1, odds are decreased for an outcome; OR >1 means the odds are increased for a given outcome. Let’s look at the examples again and consider odds.
For pediatric arrest, the risk of survival if intubated during arrest was 411/1135 (36%) vs 460/1135 (41%) if not intubated. Let’s convert to odds and calculate an OR.
*
Intubated: 411/1135-411 = 411/724 = 0.57 odds.
*
Non-intubated: 460/1135-460 = 460/675 = 0.68 odds.
*
So, the OR is 0.57/0.68 = 0.83.Expenditure Guidelines Odds Oregon
Note, this is very close to the RR (0.89) but is a slight overestimate of the effect on the outcome. This is always the case with the OR compared to the RR - it overestimates the effect.
Take the example of supination-flexion vs hyperpronation for nursemaid’s. The risk of failure for SF was 96/351 vs. 32/350 with HP. Let’s convert this to odds.
*
SF: 96/351-96 = 0.376 odds
*
HP: 32/350-32 = 0.10 odds
*
The OR is 0.376/0.10 = 3.7
Note, the OR overestimates the RR, which was 3. Although one could say the risk of failure using SF is 3 times greater than HP, one could not say, based on the OR, the risk was 3.74 times greater. The OR and RR are not the same. What could be said is that the odds of failure is 3.74 times greater.Risk Ratio vs Odds Ratio
Whereas RR can be interpreted in a straightforward way, OR can not. A RR of 3 means the risk of an outcome is increased threefold. A RR of 0.5 means the risk is cut in half. But an OR of 3 doesn’t mean the risk is threefold; rather the odds is threefold greater. Interpretation of an OR must be in terms of odds, not probability. Again, the OR will always be an overestimate compared to the RR. However, the RR and OR will be similar for rare outcomes, <10%. But the OR increasingly overestimates RR as outcomes exceed 10%. This is easier to understand with an example.
Pretend a new vape, Vapalicious, is associated with cancer.
*
80/100 people who use it get cancer.
*
20/100 who don’t use it get cancer.
*
The risk of getting cancer is 4 times greater in Vapalicious users. RR = 0.8/0.2 = 4
*
Note how distorted the OR becomes in this example. OR = (80/20)/(20/80) = 16
What if Vapalicious rarely caused cancer?
*
5/1000 get cancer with Vapalicious vs 2.5/1000 for non-users.
*
RR = 2.
*
OR = 2 as well (actually 2.005)
*
With rare outcomes, the RR and OR are very similar.Why Does This Matter?
This matters because we often equate the OR and RR. Unwary researchers, reviewers, or news media might report a 16-fold increased risk of cancer from Vapalicious. In fact, there was a 4-fold increased risk of cancer from Vapalicous. Not that I plan to use Vapalicious (or any other vape), but a 16-fold vs 4-fold increase is a gross overestimation of the effect.What Does the OR Mean?
So, what does an OR mean? Here it is in plain language.
*
An OR of 1.2 means there is a 20% increase in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure.
*
An OR of 2 means there is a 100% increase in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure. Or this could be stated that there is a doubling of the odds of the outcome. Note, this is not the same as saying a doubling of the risk.
*
An OR of 0.2 means there is an 80% decrease in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure.Summary
*
Odds Ratio is a measure of the strength of association with an exposure and an outcome.
*
OR > 1 means greater odds of association with the exposure and outcome.
*
OR = 1 means there is no association between exposure and outcome.
*
OR < 1 means there is a lower odds of association between the exposure and outcome.
*
If the 95% confidence interval for the OR includes 1, the results are not statistically significant.
*
OR and RR are not the same.
*
OR always overestimate RR, but…
*
OR approximates RR when the outcome is rare but markedly overestimates it as outcome exceeds 10%.References
*
The odds ratio by Bland and Altman, of Bland-Altman plot fame
*
Wikipedia aka source of all statistical knowledge
Obviously, sports betting is gambling. However, there is a solid strategy that you can earn some money like an investment that is offered a bank. It uses ’odds-on’ favorite on online bookmakers. If you are interested in this betting strategy and getting money from gambling, read tips below.What is an “Odds-on” favorite?
An “odds-on” favorite is a selection where the money that you gamble returns less than the amount you gambled. For example it is when you bet $100 but you win less than $100. An “evens” bet will win you the same amount of money as you gambled but an “odds-on” bet will give you less. For example: 1/3 = Three to one ON – This means to win $10 you must gamble $30. So you will win back less than your original stake.Where do we see “odds-on” betting?
Everywhere, especially in team sports and tennis.
For example you may see a fixture like this in the English FA Cup: Manchester United vs Cheltenham F.C.
For almost everyone – the fans, the bookmakers and the punters - it is very obvious that Manchester SHOULD win this football match. A few possible reasons are:
a) Manchester United are in the Premier League and Cheltenham FC are in Championship League 3
b) Manchester United are playing at home
c) Cheltenham FC have never beaten Manchester United in a competitive gameAgainst Overwhelming Odds Guide
So the bookmakers would probably offer odds that look something like this: Blackjack Odds Guide
Manchester United to win 1/20
Draw 8/1
Cheltenham to win 16/1
This means that if you bet on Manchester United then you would have to bet a lot of money to return a small amount. If you bet $100 and Manchester United win then you will return $105 – a profit of $5 (plus your original bet)Why would anyone bet on “Odds-on” favorites?
Betting on “odds-on” favorites can sometimes feel like a waste of money because it often seems that the returns are very small or to get a good profitable return then you often need to gamble a lot of money. Also, the risks can often seem too high for such small returns, losing after gambling on a favorite can be very disappointing and annoying. True blue casino mobile login.
However, a return of $5 on a $100 bet is still a profit of 5% and this is something that punters like to use when comparing how much return a typical bank would give if the same investment was made. For people who gamble on long odds-on favorites they believe their money is “safe” and it pays back more than a bank and so for these types of gamblers it is worth doing as it is profitable. What is the strategy?
Best ios casino app emulator. With the following system of strategic betting – it may be possible for you to get profitable returns and at the same time keep your risks lower. It comes from the old idea that “over time, a dripping tap will fill a bucket”.
This betting strategy is a long term investment plan and needs patience and the knowledge and ability to be able to bet on a lot of different sports. However, some sports should be avoided at all times when it comes to putting large amounts on “odds-on” favorites.What are the “guidelines” for using the strategy?
If you choose to follow any betting strategies you find here or elsewhere on-line, or fellow punters recommend to you or you discover on your own, you will often find or make “guidelines” that are recommended. Here are some for this strategy:
1. Start with a fixed amount – if possible – a minimum of $1000.
2. Only bet on “odds on” favorites.
3. Place at least one bet a week. (The more you do a week the quicker your total will increase)
4. Only gamble 10% or less of your “total” amount.
5. Do not place bets on horse racing, F1 or golf events.
The way the system works is as follows: It is recommend that you bet 10% or less of your total fixed amount and that you choose odds on bets that you feel will almost definitely win. You can also look at different bookmakers odds as sometimes odds-on prices can be quite different. The most profitable odds-on bets come from rugby, cricket, soccer, tennis, American Football, basketball, baseball and ice hockey. Golf and F1 should be avoided as there are too many variables – for example the weather that can strongly affect the result and make things too risky to bet odds on – use F1 and golf to find “value” bets instead. Odds on betting is also not recommended on horse racing for too many reasons to be given here. What happens when you follow the strategy?
The following table shows what happens if you gamble on odds on soccer, cricket, American football, ice hockey and rugby matches.No.Betting FixtureOddsBetReturnTotal1Soccer
Celtic to Win (Saturday)1/5$100Win $20$11202Soccer
Chelsea to win (Sunday - afternoon)1/3$112$37.33$1157.333Soccer
Barcelona to win (Sunday - night)1/4$115.73Win $28.93$1186.264American Football
New England Patriots to win (Monday)4/7$59.31 (5%) Risk is highWin $33.89$1220.155Ice Hockey
Chicago to win (Tuesday)4/7$61.00 (5%)Lose $61.00$11596Soccer
Spain to win (Friday)1/8$115.90Win $14.49$1130.397Cricket
Pakistan to win (Saturday)1/3$114.00Win $38.00$1152.008Rugby
New Zealand to win (Sunday)1/10$115.20Win $11.52$1163.529Soccer
Bayern Munich to win (Tuesday)1/4$116.35Win $29.09$1192.6110Soccer
Celtic to win (Wednesday)1/10$119.26Win $11.93$1204.54ResultOdds Guidelines
Download betting. So you can see that after gambling on “odds-on” favorites only and by not betting more than 10% of the total value the profit is at over $200 within just ten bets. That also includes a losing bet – note that also 5% was bet where the odds offered were higher than 1/3. The risk is slightly higher and the result is not so certain for higher odds on bets so it is sometimes a good idea to reduce the stake (the amount you bet) for some fixtures. The thing to remember is that “A winner is a WINNER – no matter how small the return!” and overtime you can fill that bucket with the drips! Good luck!
Register here: http://gg.gg/vhq6p
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
コメント